Abstract

Immigrant-origin voters constitute an increasingly relevant share of electorates in Western Democracies.  This lecture brings together several findings from two studies, the Immigrant German Election Study I and II, and asks three interrelated questions: How can we collect high-quality data on immigrant-origin voters? To what extent do standard models explain their behaviour? Where do distinct dynamics emerge that challenge our theories? At the center, immigrant-origin voters resemble their native peers. Their turnout and party preferences can largely be explained by the same mostly socio-psychological mechanisms that structure electoral behaviour more generally. Yet at the edges, important differences appear. First, immigrant-origin voters remain systematically less mobilized than native voters: Lower levels of political interest, resources, and pre-electoral mobilisation produce persistent gaps across the political life cycle. Second, the largest immigrant-origin group, so-called Russian-Germans, illustrates how identity and integration trajectories shape party preferences. Traditionally supportive of the Christian Democrats, parts of this group have recently shifted towards the radical right, with identity salience and integration experiences as central drivers. Third, while immigrant-specific factors often matter less than assumed, discrimination experiences and immigration-related preferences can tip the balance in particular contexts. Together, these studies suggest that immigrant-origin voters are by no means exceptional cases. Instead, analyzing them as integral parts of the electorate adds to our general understanding of electoral behaviour.

Prof. Dr. Sabrina Mayer holds the Chair of Political Sociology at the University of Bamberg. From December 2019 to March 2022, she also served as head of the “Data Methods Monitoring” cluster at DeZIM and as director of DeZIM.fdz until December 2022. She is an interdisciplinary social scientist with a master's degree in political science, computer science, and business administration and a doctorate in political science (both from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz).