Across the country, fourth-graders are currently holding their transition certificates in their hands, and parents are wondering which secondary school to choose for their children. A recent analysis of data from the National Education Panel Study (NEPS) shows that the direct path to a Gymnasium is by no means the only route to the Abitur. Motivated students develop their skills just as successfully at other secondary schools as their peers at Gymnasiums and often achieve university entrance qualifications through alternative paths.
Many parents view the decision to transfer to a secondary school after elementary school as a turning point in their children’s lives. However, a new study by the Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories (LIfBi), based on long-term data, puts into perspective the concern that children without a recommendation for a Gymnasium would have permanently poorer educational opportunities. The key finding: The skills of students who strongly wish to take the Abitur exam at Real, Gesamt, or other secondary schools develop largely in parallel with those of their peers at Gymnasium. At the same time, the choice of secondary school is just one step on a longer educational journey that can also lead to university entrance qualifications via alternative paths.
Für die Untersuchung analysierte Bildungsforscher Dr. Felix Bittmann Daten des Nationalen Bildungspanels (NEPS). Begleitet wurden rund 1.940 Schülerinnen und Schüler über einen Zeitraum von zehn Jahren. Im Fokus standen Jugendliche mit einem klaren Abiturwunsch bereits zu Beginn der Sekundarstufe (Klasse 5).
Motivation, support, and guidance are crucial
Based on objective competency tests in math and reading, motivated children—that is, those aiming to earn their Abitur—develop at nearly the same rate regardless of the type of school they attend. “In grades 5, 7, 9, and 12, the results are extremely similar,” explains study author Felix Bittmann. The decisive factors are not so much the type of school itself but rather motivation, family support, and a good orientation within the education system. According to Bittmann, it is important that the decision regarding school choice aligns with the child’s needs, individual strengths, and pace of development. Specifically: Children who are not yet ready for a Gymnasium after 4th grade may benefit from a different learning environment for a while longer before successfully transitioning to that type of school.
Ultimately, however, it becomes clear that differences in high school graduation rates persist. Statistically speaking, students at Gymnasium are 13 percentage points more likely to graduate. Bittmann considers this positive news, as earlier studies had suggested significantly larger differences of over 20 percentage points. “The concern that alternative education pathways have not been sufficiently strengthened by reforms in the school system is put into perspective,” says Bittmann.
Boosting educational counseling provided by schools
The study also suggests that structural barriers and a lack of information may play a greater role than differences in skills. Families with no personal experience in the German education system or with a history of migration, in particular, often have high educational goals but encounter obstacles more frequently due to the complexity of educational pathways. After 9th or 10th grade, numerous options open up—from technical high schools to vocational high schools—but many parents are largely unaware of them. For this reason, schools and teachers must inform parents and students early on about transitions and alternative educational paths and guide them through these processes. For example, many parents are unaware that the (specialized) university entrance qualification can be obtained retroactively and without age restrictions at technical and vocational high schools.
Being more relaxed about the transition to middle school
Even though the results apply only to families with very high educational aspirations and may not be generalizable to all students, Bittmann advises taking a more relaxed approach to the transition to secondary school: “The path after 4th grade isn’t set in stone—and even if things don’t work out after 10th grade, there are many opportunities today to earn a high school diploma,” emphasizes the education researcher.
About the study
For the study, data from the National Education Panel Study (NEPS)—the largest long-term education study in Germany—were analyzed. The analysis used data from NEPS Cohort 3 and focused on families with high educational aspirations. Differences in social background and basic cognitive skills were statistically controlled for in order to compare the effects of school types as precisely as possible.
The study was published in the journal Studies in Educational Evaluation under the title “Less alarming than assumed: New insights on diversion effects in German secondary education.” https://doi.org/10.1016/j.stueduc.2025.101495