In Germany, low levels of qualifications have a lasting impact on subsequent educational and employment trajectories. The analyses by the Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories (LIfBi) for the national education report “Education in Germany 2026” show how different levels of qualifications affect individuals in the long term, at which transition points educational pathways are particularly vulnerable—and where opportunities for intervention exist. The focus is on key decisions made upon leaving school—whether to pursue vocational training or higher education—long-term developments in competencies, educational returns, and the extent to which disadvantages become entrenched or can be overcome over the course of a person’s life. The LIfBi is responsible for Chapter I of the report and uses data from the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS), the largest long-term educational study in Germany.
The school diploma determines many things, but not everything
The first school diploma a person earns is often followed by typical educational and career trajectories. At the same time, longitudinal data show that these trajectories are not set in stone; rather, depending on the school-leaving certificate, flexible further educational trajectories and opportunities also emerge. For example, 89% of young people with a secondary school diploma typically follow paths characterized by vocational training and employment—sometimes with a delay. However, more than 10% of young people with an intermediate school leaving certificate also pursue paths that lead to a degree at a (university of applied sciences) or a university. A significantly greater diversity of educational and career trajectories is found above all among young people who left school with a university or university of applied sciences entrance qualification.
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High career aspirations can contribute to interruptions in education
There is a higher likelihood of dropping out of vocational training when particularly ambitious career aspirations are combined with a secondary school diploma. About one in three young people with a secondary school diploma (34 %) aspires to a career at the highest skill level (expert), which typically requires at least four years of college education. As a result, there is a higher risk of dropping out of vocational training, which can be followed by periods of unemployment. Taking career aspirations into account—along with the necessary prerequisites and options—during career counseling could help counteract this.
Lack of a school diploma puts people at a disadvantage for life
Lack of a school diploma increases the risk of unemployment. While 66% of young people without a school diploma participate in vocational preparation programs, complete vocational training, and enter the workforce, However, slightly more than one-third of students without a school diploma (34 %) drop out of vocational training after completing a vocational preparation program and are subsequently unemployed.
30% of those who were initially low-skilled go on to earn a high school diploma, a vocational degree, or a college degree
A long-term perspective also shows that approximately 30% of individuals who are initially low-skilled after first leaving the education system have obtained a high school diploma, a vocational degree, and/or a college degree after six years. In contrast, approximately 70% remain low-skilled à https://www.lifbi.de/Portals/2/News/Abb Qualifikationsniveau S. 333.jpg People with low skills or low levels of education are also more likely to be unemployed over the course of their lives, hold lower-paying jobs, and face health challenges.
“Educational policy and planning in Germany should view education more as a lifelong process. Currently, there is a lack of focus in education policy on the period after students leave the school system, and supporting opportunities for continued participation in education does not fall under any clear area of political responsibility. It is particularly important for disadvantaged groups and for people whose educational and employment trajectories have not followed a linear course that the measures taken by different ministries and educational sectors be better coordinated,” says Prof. Dr. Cordula Artelt, a member of the Education Report’s authoring group and director of LIfBi.
Differences in competencies arise early and persist for a long time
The example of science competencies also shows that educational disparities in Germany arise early and remain stable for a long time. Significant differences in competencies can already be observed at the preschool age: Children of parents with low levels of education and from families with an immigrant background already have lower science competencies before starting elementary school. Neither in elementary school nor in secondary school do they catch up to children of parents with higher levels of education and those without an immigrant background. à https://www.lifbi.de/Portals/2/News/Abb naturwiss Kompetenzen S. 333.jpg
Unlocking the potential of women in STEM fields
Differences in competency levels based on gender, however, emerge much later. Between the ages of five and nine, the performance levels and development of science competencies are comparable among boys and girls. It is not until age 15 that boys, on average, demonstrate higher competencies than girls and show stronger competency growth through age 26. There are also—in some cases significant—gender differences in pay within STEM professions, again to the detriment of women. At the skilled worker level, for example, female mechatronics engineers earned around 19 euros per hour in 2024, while their male colleagues earned over four euros more per hour.
Prof. Dr. Cordula Artelt: “Gender differences in science competencies are not set in stone. A lead by boys over girls only becomes apparent during puberty, often in parallel with the development of gender-typical motivation toward science-related activities and careers. An important strategy for attracting more women to science careers is to counteract the stagnation in skill and motivation development among girls and young women at an early stage and to strengthen their interests and self-confidence.”
National Education Report (PDF in German)
ChapterI „Educational trajectories, competency development, and outcomes“
About the National Education Report
The national education report “Education in Germany” is prepared by an independent group of researchers representing the following institutions: the DIPF | Leibniz Institute for Research and Information in Education (lead agency), the German Institute for Adult Education – Leibniz Center for Lifelong Learning (DIE), the German Youth Institute (DJI), the German Center for Higher Education and Science Research (DZHW), the Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories (LIfBi), the Göttingen Institute for Sociological Research (SOFI) at Georg-August University, as well as the Federal Statistical Office (StBA) and the state statistical offices (represented by the Hessian State Statistical Office). The Conference of Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs (KMK) and the Federal Ministry of Education, Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women, and Youth (BMBFSFJ) are funding the preparation of the report.
The LIfBi is responsible for Chapter I, “Educational trajectories, competency development, and outcomes,” and—like the Education Report as a whole—relies in particular on data from the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS).